BBC预测20个职业将会被人工智能淘汰

Posted on 2018-07-26

BBC 预测 20 个职业将会被人工智能淘汰 INSIGHT CHINA11-06

上个月,最强人工智能阿法零着实在全世界媒体上刷了一波屏,也引发了又一轮关于 AI 的讨论,除了老生常谈的人工智能是否会给人类带来进步或毁灭的科幻哲学话题,一个比较现实的问题也被媒体提起:人工智能的发展,会导致部分人类失业吗?什么领域更有可能被机器取代?BBC 前不久就做了一期关于这个话题的专题报道,一起来看看吧。 你辛辛苦苦准备语言成绩和文书,你带着家人的期待和自己的梦想去了大洋彼岸,几年后你学成归来,找了一份不错的工作。自以为可以大展拳脚。

可有一天,你像往常一样去上班,却见老板推门进来:” 很抱歉,我们有了一个新员工来替代你 “。

他身后跟着一个金属皮肤的机器人……

这个场面可能有点科幻,但类似的事情,却实实在在会在可预见到的未来发生。 BBC 报道,牛津大学的研究者们得出了一个惊人的结论:英国现存的工作种类,有 35% 会在未来的二十年内完全被机器取代。 波士顿的专家们则认为这个时间会更短:2025 年之前,全世界至少要有四分之一的岗位因为人工智能的发展而彻底消失。预计可能有数十万乃至上百万人将受到直接冲击而失业。

报道同时还提到,和很多人想象的不同,除了那些低端体力劳动外,会计,金融,摄影,法律等往常被认为是 “ 中高端脑力劳动 “ 的岗位,一样会受到 AI 发展的影响。换句话说,未来很有可能留学几年回来,却发现自己还竞争不过一台电脑。

有这么可怕吗?机器真的要抢走我们的饭碗?

你的专业会被取代吗?

牛津大学马丁学院的 Michael Osborne 和 Carl Frey 是研究人工智能方面问题的专家。他们在 2013 年发表了一篇题为《未来职业:工作有多容易被机器取代?(THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW SUSCEPTIBLE ARE JOBS TO COMPUTERISATION?)》的论文。 根据他们的研究结果,BBC 列出了一份名单,涵盖社会数十个领域的上千份工作。你可以在下面这个网站上直接查询到自己的工作的可被替代程度。 http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-34066941 主页君按照可替代度从高到低的排列顺序,给大家整理了以下 20 个在未来 20 年最有可能被人工智能替代的工作:

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看到你的专业相关了?先别慌,我们详细看看。

可被替换度:简单劳动岗位首当其冲

显而易见的是,在自动化和人工智能大潮下,最先受到冲击的是那些传统行业中的重复性体力劳动者。上述列表中就有近一半的岗位与属于简单劳动岗位而被取代。 事实上,一些岗位已经开始消失了。 主页君在美国时遇到过一个有些 “ 黑色幽默 “ 的事:校门口的麦当劳员工因为薪资待遇过低而罢工,餐厅停业了一段时间,最后店方同意涨工资,但裁掉了一半的收银员。因为他们安装了下面这个:

留学美国的小伙伴们大都对这种 “ 自助点餐机 “ 有印象。仅仅需要动下手指,一名顾客在不到一分钟时间内即可完成食物的选择,甚至还可以自定义饮料冰块的多少,汉堡中要不要加酸黄瓜。 这套系统正在全美的麦当劳快餐店全面铺开,预计到 2018 年会取代 5500 家门面店的人类收银员。不过对于一些有社交恐惧症的小伙伴来说,这简直神器啊…… 而另一些与人打交道的行业也变得岌岌可危。首当其冲的就是接待和客服,这方面的尝试在国内早已遍地开花。

比如在 2016 年,” 阿里小蜜 “AI 客服在双十一期间接待了 632 万消费者,这相当于 5.2 万自然 n 人连续工作 24 小时。淘宝方面表示,一个智能机器人可以抵得上 3 万坐在电脑前的客服小姐姐。 不得不说,在简单职业方面,机器人的竞争力远大于人类。

初级脑力劳动也不安全

如果说上文提到的和我们的生活还多少有些遥远,那么下面提到的行业就有可能触及到一些小伙伴未来的饭碗了。 这份 TOP20 榜单中,最让人意外的是商科很多热门专业居然榜上有名,注册会计师,估价师等当下非常吃香的工作竟也被列为 “ 高危 “。

What?花大价钱出国读商科,结果饭碗要被机器人抢走了? 事实上,相关领域确实已经有了部分尝试。 2016 年三月,四大国际会计师事务所之一德勤宣布,与 Kira Systems 联手,将人工智能引入会计、税务、审计等工作当中,主要工作是帮助一线会计师快速 “ 阅读 “ 数千份复杂文件,从复杂信息中提取有价值的部分,协助工作人员做出更好的分析。 当然,涉及到复杂战略分析和判断的领域,短时间依然需要专业人才的协助而不可能依靠 AI,但普通核算型工作,如财务、审计、税务等财务基础人员等,机器在这个领域想要赶超人类并不困难。

也就是说,可能未来大公司和事务所就不会再需要打下手了实习生了。想进 “ 四大 “ 的小伙伴,恐怕要更加优秀才可以。 另一方面,尽管并不在 TOP20 中,但摄影师这一工作也被 BBC 标上了 50.3% 的可替代度。电脑也能 “ 欣赏 “,这一点可能出乎很多人意料,但谷歌在相关领域已经取得了初步成功。 今年 7 月,谷歌研究实验室发表了一项研究成果,他们给一个深度学习系统输入了近 4 万张由街景车拍摄的自然风景素材,机器通过分析,比对,裁剪和 PS 后期处理,最终产出了一系列 “ 摄影作品 “。

这些人工智能制作的作品中,40% 被专业摄影师评为佳作。这个产片率已经比很多工作了三五年的摄影师还要高了。

尽管这项技术距离真正的 “ 机器人摄影师 “ 还很遥远,但它已经展示了电脑在初级摄影方面的能力。显然,如果这项技术进一步发展,完全有潜力淘汰掉一大批业余人类摄影师。 同样道理,在简单平面设计,文字处理,表格制作等领域,AI 都表现出了可能替代人类的趋势。 此外,律师,法律从业者的被替代概率只有 3.5%,但 BBC 同时也指出,简单阅读法律条款,处理文本之类的法律秘书工作,也有相当的可能在未来被一台电脑挤掉饭碗。

我的专业安全吗

看完上面的分析,想必小伙伴们最关心的可能还是自己的专业,会被人工智能取代吗? 究竟是什么决定一项工作的可替代性? 在论文中,Osborne 和 Frey 用了九个指标来衡量:社交洞察能力,谈判交涉能力,说服力,协助和照顾他人,原创性,美术,手指精密操作程度和狭小空间工作需求度。 也就是说,安全的工作符合以下特点:

  1. 有非常高的创意性和抽象性思维;
  2. 需要高度社交智慧和谈判技巧;
  3. 需要关心和与人沟通能力;

如果你是一名经验丰富的平面设计师,或小说作者;或者是一名高级商务代表,企业中层管理;又或者是医生,护士,教师,心理咨询师……

那么放轻松,你的工作在可预见到的时间内都不会被 AI 所动摇。 相反,如果你的工作:

  1. 单一体力劳动,工作空间规则且有结构性;
  2. 只需要初级社交能力,有规则套路可循;
  3. 重复性初级脑力工作,例如信息收集,文献阅读整理等。

那你可能就要考虑考虑改行了…… 不过主页君认为,各位也不必太担心自己几年后毕业了发现同事都成了机器人…… 整体来看,AI 只是在简单,重复性,操作性工作上占非常大的优势。虽然一些初级脑力劳动岗位也可能不保,但需要复杂思维的领域,它们暂时还赶不上人类。 换个角度来说,人工智能的发展,其实有利于出国读书,特别是那些有志于读研读博的小伙伴。因为尽管一些岗位因为机器的引入而消失,但产业升级反而催生了一批高学历需求的工作。 比如,一家位于美国的家具企业 Steelcase,在近几年普及了自动化生产线,导致工人数量锐减了一半以上,而这种管理的自动化反而让公司产生了对更高学历的管理人员的需求,例如自动化工程师来处理工厂的数据,对机器系统进行维护等。 所以可以看出,高学历仍然是一个优势。

虽然这几年人工智能发展势头猛进,而这似乎会导致一些岗位的流失,从历史发展经验来看,每一次科技工业革命,都有一大批旧岗位因为技术升级而消失,这是定律。 但是从好的一面来看,技术进步带来的整个社会的发展,长远来看制造了更多的新工作。无论在哪个时代,对高学历人才的需求永远都是刚需,好好学习,提升自己,就不会被时代扔下。 这也是我们出国留学的意义,不是吗? 本文系原创稿件,欢迎更多有想法的出国党小伙伴们向主页君的邮箱:weinsight@163.com 投稿,主页君每天都会查看的哦!欢迎分享到朋友圈,INSIGHT CHINA 诚意推荐

以下呢是上述网站中的排列名单:
1 Telephone salesperson 99.00%
2 Typist or related keyboard worker 98.50%
3 Legal secretary 97.60%
4 Financial accounts manager 97.60%
5 Weigher, grader or sorter 97.60%
5 Routine inspector and tester 97.60% 7 Sales administrator 97.20%
8 Book-keeper, payroll manager or wages clerk 97.00%
8 Finance officer 97.00%
10 Pensions and insurance clerk 97.00%
11 Bank or post office clerk 96.80%
11 Financial administrative worker (other) 96.80%
13 Non-governmental organisation (NGO) officer 96.80%
13 Local government administrative worker 96.80%
15 Library clerk 96.70%
16 Assembler and routine operative (other) 96.70%
17 Paper and wood machine operative 96.50%
18 Communication operator 96.50%
18 Telephonist 96.50%
20 Textile process operative 96.10%
21 Financial and accounting technician 95.90%
22 Receptionist 95.60%
23 Transport and distribution clerk 95.50%
24 Estimator, valuer or assessor 95.50%
25 Fishing or agricultural manual worker 95.40%
26 Chartered and certified accountant 95.30%
26 Taxation expert 95.30%
28 Skilled trader (other) 95.20%
29 Sales and retail assistant 95.10%
29 Vehicle and parts salesperson and adviser 95.10%
31 Print finishing and binding worker 95.10%
32 Debt, rent and other cash collector 94.70%
33 Public services associate professional 94.50%
33 Inspector of standards and regulations 94.50%
35 Cleaning and housekeeping manager and supervisor 94.40%
35 Housekeeper 94.40%
37 Collector salesperson or credit agent 94.40%
37 Retail and sales worker (other) 94.40%
37 Roundsperson or van salesperson 94.40%
37 Market and street trader 94.40%
41 Market research interviewer 94.20%
42 Pharmacy and other dispensing assistant 94.00%
43 Smith and forge worker 93.50%
44 Other administrative worker 92.40%
45 Assembler (electrical and electronic products) 92.40%
46 Plant and machine operative (other) 92.10%
47 Pharmaceutical technician 91.70%
48 Furniture maker or other craft woodworker 91.60%
49 Customer service worker (other) 91.00%
50 Plastics process operative 90.70%
51 Retail cashier and check-out operator 90.20%
52 Waiter or waitress 89.90%
53 Roofer, roof tiler and slater 89.70%
54 Human resources administrative worker 89.70%
55 Security guard 89.30%
56 Mobile machine driver and operative (other) 89.30%
57 Sewing machinist 89.20%
58 Baker and flour confectioner 88.80%
59 Clerical and administrative worker (other) 88.70%
60 Rail construction and maintenance operative 88.30%
60 Road construction operative 88.30%
62 Metal making and treating process operative 88.20%
63 Electroplater 88.10%
64 Process operative (other) 88.00%
65 Metal working machine operative 87.20%
65 Metal machining setter and setter-operator 87.20%
67 Farm worker 86.50%
68 Postal worker, mail sorter, messenger or courier 85.80%
69 Stock control clerk 85.50%
70 Health care practice manager 85.10%
70 Medical secretary 85.10%
72 Kitchen and catering assistant 85.10%
73 Chemical and related process operative 84.70%
74 Butcher 84.60%
74 Fishmonger or poultry dresser 84.60%
76 Tailor and dressmaker 84.00%
77 Printer 83.10%
77 Printing machine assistant 83.10%
79 Electrical or electronic technician 82.70%
80 Textiles, garments and related worker (other) 82.50%
81 Rubber process operative 82.30%
82 Floorer or wall tiler 82.00%
83 Bricklayer and mason 82.00%
84 Elementary services worker (other) 81.80%
85 Food, drink and tobacco process operative 81.70%
86 Launderer, dry cleaner or presser 81.50%
87 Glass and ceramics process operative 81.40%
88 Process plant worker (other) 81.30%
88 Industrial cleaning process worker 81.30%
90 Painter and/or decorator 80.90%
91 Moulder, core maker or die caster 80.90%
92 Forestry worker 80.50%
93 Assembler (vehicles and metal goods) 80.40%
94 Vehicle paint technicians 80.20%
95 Construction worker 80.00%
96 Agricultural machinery driver 79.40%
97 Agriculture or fishing professional 79.20%
98 Parking or civil enforcement worker 79.00%
98 Leisure and theme park attendant 79.00%
98 Security worker (other) 79.00%
98 School midday and crossing patrol worker 79.00%
102 Sheet metal worker 77.80%
103 IT operations technician 77.80%
104 Welding trader 77.70%
105 Tool maker and tool fitter 77.20%
106 Bar worker 76.80%
107 Business and related associate professional (other) 76.60%
108 Farmer 75.80%
109 Call and contact centre worker 75.40%
110 Plasterer 74.70%
111 Pest control officer 73.40%
112 Cook 73.40%
113 Quarry worker and related operative 73.10%
114 Glazier, window fabricator or fitter 72.80%
115 Carpenter and joiner 72.40%
116 Marine and waterways transport operative 72.20%
117 Construction operative (other) 71.30%
118 Dispensing optician 71.10%
119 Steel erector 71.00%
119 Metal plate worker or riveter 71.00%
121 Laboratory technician 69.80%
122 Coal mine operative 69.60%
123 Records clerk 69.60%
124 Estate agent or auctioneer 68.10%
125 Personal assistant or other secretary 68.10%
125 School secretary 68.10%
127 Train and tram driver 67.80%
128 Vehicle body builders and repairers 67.60%
129 Energy plant operative 67.00%
130 Groundsman or greenkeeper 66.90%
130 Gardener 66.90%
130 Horticultural professional 66.90%
133 Street cleaner 66.30%
133 Caretaker 66.30%
133 Window cleaner 66.30%
136 Insurance underwriter 66.10%
137 Legal associate professional 66.00%
138 Crane driver 65.20%
139 Tyre, exhaust and windscreen fitter 64.60%
139 Vehicle technician, mechanic or electrician 64.60%
141 Buyer and procurement officer 64.30%
142 Shelf filler 64.00%
143 Chartered surveyor 62.80%
144 Rail and rolling stock builders and repairers 62.30%
144 Metal working production and maintenance fitter 62.30%
144 Boat and ship builders and repairers 62.30%
147 Bus and coach driver 61.20%
148 Dental nurse 60.00%
149 Water and sewerage plant operative 59.80%
150 Purchasing manager or director 59.10%
150 Manager or director in storage and warehousing 59.10%
150 Manager or director in transport and distribution 59.10%
153 IT engineers 58.30%
154 Care escort 57.70%
154 Houseparent and residential warden 57.70%
156 Hospital porter 57.30%
156 Cleaner (non-domestic other) 57.30%
156 Cleaner or domestic helper 57.30%
159 Taxi and cab driver or chauffeur 56.80%
159 Van driver 56.80%
161 Pre-press technician 56.60%
162 Architectural or town planning technician 56.50%
162 Building and civil engineering technician 56.50%
164 Rail transport operative 56.00%
165 Precision instrument maker and repairer 55.90%
166 Nursery nurse or assistant 55.70%
166 Educational support assistant 55.70%
166 Teaching assistant 55.70%
169 Scaffolder, stager or rigger 54.50%
170 Sports and leisure assistant 53.30%
171 Health and safety officer 53.00%
172 Footwear or leather worker 52.20%
172 Weaver and knitter 52.20%
174 Librarian 51.90%
175 Draughtsperson 51.40%
176 Air transport operative 51.30%
176 Storage worker 51.30%
176 Driver and transport operative (other) 51.30%
179 Merchandiser and window dresser 51.30%
179 Sales related worker (other) 51.30%
181 Credit controller 51.20%
182 Florist 50.90%
183 Photographer or audio-visual and broadcasting equipment operator 50.30%
184 Pipe fitter 48.70%
184 Plumber, heating or ventilating engineer 48.70%
186 Fork-lift truck driver 48.20%
187 Refuse and salvage worker 48.20%
188 Engineering technician 47.70%
189 TV, video and audio engineers 47.20%
189 Electrical and electronic trades (other) 47.20%
191 Glass and ceramics maker, decorator or finisher 46.80%
192 Nursing auxiliary and assistant 46.80%
193 Animal care services worker (other) 46.40%
194 Protective service associate professional (other) 46.40%
195 Undertaker, mortuary and crematorium assistant 45.40%
196 Veterinary nurse 44.60%
197 Conservation and environmental associate professional 41.50%
198 Large goods vehicle driver 40.80%
199 Finance and investment analyst and adviser 40.70%
200 Senior care worker 39.90%
200 Care worker and home carer 39.90%
202 Business sales executive 39.30%
203 Rail travel assistant 39.10%
204 National government administrative worker 38.80%
205 Upholsterer 38.60%
206 Archivist or curator 38.30%
207 Packer, bottler, canner or filler 37.90%
208 Air travel assistant 37.80%
209 Sports coach, instructor or official 37.70%
210 Actor, entertainer or presenter 37.40%
211 Beautician 36.90%
212 Vehicle valeter and/or cleaner 36.80%
213 Chef 36.60%
214 Planning, process and production technician 36.10%
215 Importer and/or exporter 35.90%
216 Aircraft maintenance and related trades 35.40%
217 Leisure and travel service worker (other) 34.60%
218 Quality assurance technician 34.30%
218 Science, engineering and production technician (other) 34.30%
220 Author, writer or translator 32.70%
221 Hairdresser or barber 32.70%
222 Air-conditioning and refrigeration engineer 32.60%
223 Marketing associate professional 32.60%
223 Advertising accounts manager or creative director 32.60%
225 Human resource manager or director 32.20%
226 Prison service officer (below principal officer) 31.10%
227 Sports player 28.30%
228 Sales supervisor 27.90%
229 Medical and dental technician 27.50%
229 Medical radiographer 27.50%
231 Travel agent 26.30%
232 Aircraft pilot or flight engineer 25.20%
233 Functional manager or director 25.20%
233 Travel agency manager 25.20%
233 Waste disposal and environmental services manager 25.20%
233 Property, housing and estate manager 25.20%
233 Production manager or director in mining and energy 25.20%
233 Senior officer in fire, ambulance, prison or related services 25.20%
233 Hairdressing and beauty salon manager 25.20%
233 Manager or owner in other services 25.20%
233 Garage manager or owner 25.20%
242 Careers adviser and vocational guidance specialist 23.80%
242 Human resources and industrial relations officer 23.80%
244 Business, research and administrative professional (other) 23.20%
244 Business and related research professional 23.20%
246 Police officer (sergeant and below) 22.40%
246 Police community support officer 22.40%
248 IT project and programme manager 21.60%
248 IT specialist manager 21.60%
248 IT and telecoms professionals (other) 21.60%
248 IT user support technician 21.60%
252 Web design and development professional 20.60%
253 Physical scientist 19.60%
254 Public relations professional 17.50%
255 Construction and building trades supervisor 17.30%
256 Leisure and sports manager 17.20%
257 Senior police officer 17.00%
258 Sales accounts and business development manager 16.50%
259 Shopkeeper or store owner in wholesale and retail 15.90%
259 Manager or director in retail and wholesale 15.90%
261 Electricians and electrical fitters 14.80%
262 Ship or hovercraft officer 14.80%
263 Actuary, economist or statistician 14.70%
264 Ophthalmic optician 13.70%
265 Driving instructor 13.40%
265 Dancer or choreographer 13.40%
267 Further education teaching professional 13.30%
268 Mechanical engineer 13.10%
269 Welfare and housing associate professional (other) 13.10%
269 Child and early years officer 13.10%
269 Youth and community worker 13.10%
269 Housing officer 13.10%
273 Town planning officer 13.10%
274 Electronics engineer 12.50%
275 Arts officer, producer or director 12.00%
276 Financial institution manager or director 11.40%
277 Product or clothing designer 11.30%
278 Environmental health professional 10.50%
279 Social and humanities scientist 10.40%
280 Electrical engineer 10.20%
281 Primary and nursery education teaching professional 8.90%
282 Chief executive or senior official 8.70%
283 Fire service officer (watch manager and below) 8.60%
284 Programmer and software development professional 8.50%
285 Journalist, newspaper or periodical editor 8.40%
286 Residential, day and domiciliary care managers 8.30%
287 Restaurant and catering establishment manager or owner 8.30%
287 Catering or bar manager 8.30%
289 Natural and social science professional (other) 8.00%
289 Biological scientist or biochemist 8.00%
291 Playworker 8.00%
291 Childminder 8.00%
293 Fitness instructor 7.50%
294 Air traffic controller 7.20%
295 Construction and building worker 7.10%
295 Construction project manager or related professional 7.10%
295 Production manager or director in construction 7.10%
298 Business and financial project management professional 7.00%
298 Quality assurance and regulatory professional 7.00%
298 Management consultant and business analyst 7.00%
301 Financial manager or director 6.90%
301 Company secretary 6.90%
303 Chemical scientist 6.20%
304 Health associate professional (other) 5.50%
305 Paramedic 4.90%
305 Ambulance staff (excluding paramedics) 4.90%
307 Graphic designer 4.90%
308 Manager in agriculture and horticulture 4.70%
308 Manager in forestry, fishing or related services 4.70%
310 Broker 4.50%
311 Musician 4.50%
312 Social worker 4.30%
312 Counsellor 4.30%
312 Welfare professional (other) 4.30%
312 Probation officer 4.30%
316 Artist 3.80%
317 Veterinarian 3.80%
318 Conference and exhibition manager or organiser 3.70%
319 IT and telecoms director 3.50%
320 Barrister or judge 3.50%
320 Solicitor 3.50%
320 Legal professional (other) 3.50%
323 Engineering professional (other) 3.40%
323 Quantity surveyor 3.40%
323 Quality control and planning engineer 3.40%
323 Design and development engineer 3.40%
327 Higher education teaching professional 3.20%
328 Production manager or director in manufacturing 3.00%
329 Production and process engineer 2.90%
330 Advertising and public relations director 2.70%
331 Telecommunications engineers 2.50%
332 Conservation professional 2.40%
332 Environment professional 2.40%
334 Dental practitioner 2.10%
335 Physiotherapist 2.10%
336 Medical practitioner 2.00%
337 Civil engineer 1.90%
338 Chartered architectural technologist 1.80%
338 Architect 1.80%
340 Research and development manager 1.70%
341 Clergy member 1.60%
342 Skilled metal, electrical and electronic trades supervisor 1.60%
343 Office manager 1.40%
343 Office supervisor 1.40%
343 Customer service manager and supervisor 1.40%
346 Vocational and industrial instructor 1.40%
347 Marketing and sales director 1.40%
348 Special needs education teaching professional 1.20%
349 Occupational therapist 1.20%
349 Health professional (other) 1.20%
349 Podiatrist 1.20%
352 Pharmacist 1.20%
353 IT business analyst, architect and system designer 1.10%
354 Nurse 0.90%
354 Midwife 0.90%
356 Teaching and educational professional (other) 0.80%
357 Secondary education teaching professional 0.80%
358 Senior professional at educational establishment 0.70%
359 Health services and public health manager or director 0.70%
360 Psychologist 0.70%
360 Therapy professional (other) 0.70%
362 Social services manager or director 0.70%
363 Speech and language therapist 0.50%
364 Education adviser and school inspector 0.40%
365 Publican or manager of licensed premises 0.40%
365 Hotel and accommodation manager or owner 0.40%


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